Thursday, February 20, 2014

Efficiency of final delivered goods and services and of actual end use is 1 to 2 percent :India

This is a good discussion of the players in the thoroughly discredited modern civilization(mc) as it is played out in the new millennium. Bharat J discusses elements of a normal civilization(nc) when he writes about jobless growth and weavers, without going into the details of the glaring lacuna of the designs and their implementations in trying to meet the needs of mc.
This was perspicaciously brought out by Mahatma Gandhi in 1908, taking one look at mc. He said: Given enough time mc will destroy itself. There is a felt painful need to make a new law which will force the designs to enable production, consumption and RETURN, instead of waste because of Gandhi's law as stated above. Today, because of the imperfect knowledge(read corrupted truth) portions of modern civilization are exerting increasingly greater cumulative effects on one another leading to catastrophes: Example: the dams of the world are supposed to meet our water needs including spiking electricity demands. But the side effects are catastrophic: direct heating up of the earth, aggravating the extremes of weather in hydrological cycles leading to climate change, earthquakes which by a nuclear effect are causing nuclear catastrophes like Chernobyl, Fukushima and dam surge effects like at Kedarnath, and explosions in underground nuclear waste depositories like at Kyshtym and WIPP, New Mexico, mine explosions, spontaneous fires, arctic blasts and others. Growth must also be in the gross nature produce, not just mining our resources for evil profiteering. The utter neglect of lost opportunity in destroying nature instead of living by income from her is lost in mc which sees human beings and other embodiments of living energy as a liability. The need is to recognise the infintely superior godly design of living beings. Their outputs are precious, their excreta when returned to the earth are seamlessly used again to enable the production process of, for example food, to go on indefinitely. The parallel economy of mc is in direct contrast to that of normal civilization in harmony with nature. Neither modification or har-vard is the way. Its hariward- Ishvara life cycle that demands respect and implementation.

But look at the way the government of India through M oily and Manmohan Singh are going against the constitution and the Human Rights Charter of the UN:

PMO pulled out all stops to weaken eco, forest norms

The dangers of modern civilization are highlighted in the following discussion on efficiency of modern civilization which neglects the cycle of life and concentrates only on production, consumption and waste instead of return.

If an electrical energy programme is to deliver 83000 MW by 2017 the efficiency of final delivered goods and services and of end use may be as low as 1 to 2 percent. See Table EFDGSU:

A huge electrical energy programme slated to deliver a capacity of 83000 MW by 2017 including some 10080 MW nuclear may foreclose many a development project and concentrate only on energy resulting in huge non performing assets.
Instead, on the same total area, forests will deliver a permanent returning power flow of 2 million megawatts in a decade at the rate of 40 MW/km^2 area demanded by nuclear and fossil and hydro plants. This is the lost opportunity which must be factored in as is done below.

This is revealed by an Input Output analysis of the Indian Economy and a look at the 12th Five 
Year Plan and the energy audit of the Indian Nuclear Programme.

In the table below, the items for the year 2003-2004 are in percentage terms as given in the first reference. That is if goods and services are 1800 with 100% for each item of goods and services  then energy component of this is 449.9 got by adding up the energy component in percent for each item of goods and services. So if the goods and services in 2003-04 measured 1800 lakh crores of rupees, the total of the energy components is 449.9 lakh crores of rupees. For all the other items(for the period 2012-2017), the items are estimated actuals, except for the computed efficiencies.
For information on Project cost and time in public sector see
Sebastian Morris.1990.“Cost and Time Overruns in Public Sector Projects”, in
Economic and Political Weekly, Nov.24, 1990, Vol. XXV, No.47,pp.M-154 to M-
In the 12th Five Year Plan the Incremental Capital Output Ratio ICOR is the highest so far(4.6, estimated)!
(Second Reference given in the table).

Sunday, February 02, 2014

Much of India's Rural Areas still await electricity and nuclear energy programme will push the wait to eternity!

By R. Ashok Kumar,B.E.,M.E(Power), Negentropist, Bombay Sarvodaya Mandal, 299, Tardeo Road, Nana Chowk, Mumbai-400007.
Much of rural India still waits for electricity
"Electrification was central to how early nationalists and planners
conceptualized Indian development, and huge sums were spent on the
project from independence until now," says Sunila S. Kale, assistant
professor of international studies. "Yet despite all this, nearly 400
million Indians have no access to electricity. Although India has less
than a fifth of the world's population, it has close to 40 percent of
the world's population without access to electricity."

Kale explores some of the reasons for India's lag in providing
electrical power <> in her book
/Electrifying India: Regional Political Economies of Development/, to be
published by Stanford University Press in Spring 2014. The book has
already garnered a top award from the American Institute for Indian Studies.

But with nuclear energy programme that the government is adopting, simultaneously waging a campaign of calumny and libel and worse like arresting and putting in jail lakhs of Indians for opposing nuclear power, society will not get electricity for the next five decades at least from these programmes. Society will be supplying power from coal and hydro to these nuke cycles and industry in gargantuan amounts, several energy audits show. The effect of these nuclear energy programmes is to reduce the availabilty of electricity to the consumers outside the nuclear industry,year after year:.
The present installed capacity in India is as follows:
Thermal About 160000 MW Hydro About 40000 MW(See CEA Installed Capacity Dec2013).
See the dynamic energy audit of nuclear programme with 1000 MW nuclear reactors:
See the link:
Considering a nuclear energy programme of 24000 MW capacity addition during the next 28 years from 2014 to 2042,by the 23rd year of the programme, some 60000 MWyears of the  energy-capacity would have been siphoned off to the n-programme.  Also the electrical All India Capacity available to society in the form of thermal+ hydro is reduced  from 200000 MW by 6666 MW, being the nuclear industry need(NID), the maximum being 10600 MW NID in the 18th and 19th years of the programme!
Note from the Table that during the entire 28 years of the programme not a single unit of electricity will be available to consumers outside the nuclear industry! For 28 years till 2042!
That is why the real price of nuclear electricity for India will be infinity!